Twilight in the Desert: The Coming Saudi Oil Shock and the World Economy
Product Type: Book
Product Price: $16.95
Manufacturer: Wiley
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Description
Twilight in the Desert reveals a Saudi oil and production industry that could soon approach a serious, irreversible decline. In this exhaustively researched book, veteran oil industry analyst Matthew Simmons draws on his three-plus decades of insider experience and more than 200 independently produced reports about Saudi petroleum resources and production operations. He uncovers a story about Saudi Arabia’s troubled oil industry, not to mention its political and societal instability, which differs sharply from the globally accepted Saudi version. It’s a story that is provocative and disturbing, based on undeniable facts, but until now never told in its entirety. Twilight in the Desert answers all readers’ questions about Saudi oil and production industries with keen examination instead of unsubstantiated posturing, and takes its place as one of the most important books of this still-young century.
Reviews
Rating: 3 / 5
Date: 2010-06-04
Summary: "Reality check - but with FEW actual facts"
I really only read the first 1/2 of this book, which provided a nice history of Saudi Arabia
& the oil industry their over the last several decades. The later parts of the book provided
the "details" showing the probable decline in the capacity of Saudi oil. It's easy to portray
the "end is near" as an answer, just as it's easy to portray "we're at least 50 years away" if
you believe the Saudi claims of oil reserves.
A couple observations:
1) The author more than once said he felt the Saudi's varied their output to meet changing
world demand and we should all be happy for it. He essentially "looked the other way" to
the charges the Saudi's were manipulating the market to keep energy alternatives at bay. I
personally suspect the latter is mostly true. Looking at the last few decades of history, it's
hard (for me) to see another answer.
2) The Saudi's refuse to report their technical information on the productivity of their oil
fields, and the various technologies they employ to continue pulling oil from the earth.
That said, WHY would you assume any particular scenario as being the "truth". At one
end of the spectrum, they could be running scared because they know their reserves are
running low, so they hide this fact with "fake" reserves. At the other end, they could be
sending selective "signals" (via technical reports that reveal technologies they are (or may
be) using to extract the current volume of oil, without acknowledging the ACTUAL
volume & processes.
In the end, I was disappointed. I wasn't really interested in reading the detailed info in the
second part of the book -- from what was stated in the first part, it was likely to be of
suspect accuracy anyway. Admittedly, I may have missed some pertinent info.
All in all I'd call this an unverifiable "wake-up" call.
Rating: 4 / 5
Date: 2010-01-28
Summary: "LOGICAL THAT IT WILL RUN OUT SOMETIME"
It is only logical that the oil is going to run out sometime. When is the big question. The author did a very good job of providing a basis for his assessment in terms that the average non-oil engineer can understand. I would not be surprised if his book is banned in Saudi Arabia as it does not present a very happy future for that nation. Now he should do a similar assessment of the other Middle East oil producing nations.
Rating: 4 / 5
Date: 2009-08-17
Summary: "An informed view"
I've been analysing global oil supply trends since the 1980s, and have had work published by the OPEC cartel, so I'd like to provide a balanced assessment of Matthew Simmons' views, and some of the debates behind the issue.
Essentially, Simmons believes that the giant Al Ghawar field is in terminal decline, and that this event will evolve Peak Oil from theory to fact. Al Ghawar is undoubtedly critical - it is a huge field, but an old one, discovered in the late 1940s and on stream since the early 1950s. Until recently, it has contributed about half - around 5 mmb/d - of all Saudi production. If it does indeed decline, is this a major event? And is it declining?
The Saudi oil industry is shrouded in state-enforced secrecy, but the answer to the second question seems to be a pretty unequivocal "yes". Saudi Aramco has conceded that it now injects more than 7 mmb/d of treated seawater into Al Ghawar. This is, by any standards, a huge water-injection programme. Water injection is a secondary recovery technique designed to bolster flow-rates by buttressing reservoir pressure. It's a generalisation, but an acceptable one, that this process is used on fields whose production would otherwise be in a rapid decline.
Is the decline of Al Ghawar a major event? Again, yes. Global discovery rates have been falling since the 1960s. The history of published reserves numbers from many countries displays some suspicious upwards revisions, and often seem to fail to deduct produced volumes. One of the great hopes for new reserves - the Caspian - has fallen far short of initial expectations.
But one needs to bear two things in mind here:
1. "Proved reserves" are not a statement of pure geology - rather, they are a matrix of economics (prices, costs, rates of return) applied to geological knowledge.
2. How do we define "oil"? "Conventional" oil - light sweet crude, produced easily - has been in decline for a long time, but is being displaced by unconventionals, such as gas-liquids, heavy crudes and oil produced from difficult fields ("difficult" either geographically or geologically).
Unconventional sources are, potentially, huge - in North America alone, Canada has perhaps 200 bn bbls of oil sands, whilst the US has vast reserves of shale oil. The snag is that delivery rates - rates of production as a percentage of reserves - are far lower than for conventional oils.
Then there's the price mechanism - scarcity drives prices up, which both (a) deters consumption, and (b) incentives exploration and development.
Of course, you can't find or develop oil which isn't there. I believe that reserves remain huge, but that rates of production may provide insurmountable problems. "Peak Oil", in the sense that production goes into gradual decline, may occur within the next decade.
The influential Hersch Report contended that such a peak is likely, that we will get very little advance warning, and that it is very unwise not to undertake contingency planning and action. To ignore this call would surely be folly.
The truth about Peak Oil is that no-one really knows, but that its implications could be so huge that we need to prepare for it.
It is in his raising of the public profile of this issue that respected analyst Matthew Simmons has, in this seminal work, performed a great service. Every concerned person should read this book.
Rating: 5 / 5
Date: 2009-07-26
Summary: "Compelling read and very well researched"
This is a great read though at times a little dry, never the less it is well researched, documented and from a largely impeccable source. I have been following Matt Simmons for about 7 years (prior to this books release). He has been consistent with his opinions and heads up warning on this important topic.
If you are interested in this topic or are an investor in the energy sector, this is a must read. I highly reccomend it.
Rating: 5 / 5
Date: 2009-07-11
Summary: "One scary book"
Matt Simmons is the scariest author I know and he doesn't write fiction. I'm familiar with the concept of peak oil and the broad concepts of the book. There are two sides to ever story I like to see if there is a balance to issues. I tend to quickly discard both eco-nuts and corporate types with a specific agenda. This is where Mr. Simmons stands out. Where others pontificate he gets down to the details. His thorough approach is impressive and his writing style makes for easy reading of sobering topic. If you like your information fast and higher level I can suggest the film "Crude Awakening". Mr. Simmons appears in this movie. If you wish to get into the detail behind his assertions then read this book. You will probably learn quite a bit about a substance we take for granted.